Citigroup Analysts Project 7% EBITDA Drop for Macau Gaming in Second Quarter 2026

Citigroup analysts released their forecast in July 2026 projecting a 7% year-on-year decline in Macau’s second-quarter industry EBITDA to approximately US$1.92 billion, a figure that would mark the lowest level recorded since the third quarter of 2024.

The projection incorporates gross gaming revenue at MOP$61.0 billion, the weakest reading since the first quarter of 2025, alongside an expected 1.5 percentage point contraction in EBITDA margins to roughly 25.8%.

Key Drivers Behind the Forecast

Analysts attribute the anticipated contraction to two primary factors that coincide during the quarter: the football World Cup and what they describe as extremely unfavorable hold rates across major casino operators.

These elements together create a temporary compression in profitability even as visitor volumes remain steady in several segments.

Data from the forecast shows how hold rates, the percentage of wagers retained by casinos after payouts, can swing sharply during major sporting events when betting patterns shift toward higher-risk wagers.

Market Sentiment and Pricing Dynamics

The report notes that negative sentiment surrounding the second-quarter outlook already appears priced into current valuations, which means share prices and investor positioning have incorporated the expected weakness ahead of the actual results.

Observers tracking Macau equities observe that such preemptive adjustments often limit further downside once official numbers are released, provided the underlying visitor trends remain intact.

Those following the sector point out that Macau’s post-reopening recovery path has featured similar quarterly volatility tied to calendar events, yet rebounds have followed once those events conclude.

Anticipated Rebound in Later Quarters

Citigroup analysts expect a strong rebound in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, citing a robust events calendar that includes multiple high-profile tournaments, concerts, and promotional periods designed to draw premium players back to the tables.

Historical patterns indicate that quarters following major international sporting events often deliver above-average hold rates as normalized betting behavior resumes and operators adjust promotional strategies.

Figures in the forecast suggest EBITDA margins could expand beyond the second-quarter low once these catalysts take effect.

Industry participants have seen comparable cycles in prior years where temporary dips gave way to accelerated growth once the event-driven distortions faded.

Breakdown of Projected Numbers

The US$1.92 billion EBITDA target represents a clear step down from the prior-year quarter yet sits above the levels recorded during the immediate post-reopening period when recovery was still gaining momentum.

Gross gaming revenue at MOP$61.0 billion translates into a sequential slowdown from the first quarter of 2026, driven mainly by the hold-rate pressure rather than a broad collapse in volume.

Margin compression of 1.5 percentage points to 25.8% reflects the combined impact of lower hold and elevated operating costs associated with event-related marketing spend.

Context Within Macau’s Recovery Trajectory

Macau’s gaming sector has demonstrated resilience through multiple external shocks since reopening, with quarterly results frequently influenced by global sporting calendars and regional travel patterns.

The current forecast aligns with that historical rhythm by isolating the second quarter as a trough before the stronger second half materializes.

Analysts emphasize that the negative outlook remains contained to this specific period rather than signaling a broader structural change in demand.

Conclusion

The Citigroup projection provides a detailed snapshot of expected performance for Macau’s gaming industry in the second quarter of 2026, highlighting the temporary effects of the World Cup and unfavorable hold rates on both revenue and margins. The forecast also underscores that market participants have already adjusted expectations, setting the stage for a potential recovery once the third-quarter events calendar begins. Data from the report shows how these quarterly fluctuations fit within the longer-term recovery path that has characterized the sector since reopening.